Recent elections have proven that polls need to be viewed with a very skeptical eye. They rarely line up accurately with ballot outcomes. However, trends can be found. One well-known, oft-validated trend is that polls on the question of marriage always trail the actual vote. This is to say that no matter the percentage of people who state in a poll that they support traditional marriage, if the question goes to the ballot, a much larger percentage of the electorate actually votes in support of traditional marriage. This was certainly true in 2006 when VA passed our Marriage Amendment. Polls prior to the election varied but showed a range of support for the amendment from 49-53% with actual ballot support ending up at 57%.
The other predictable trend about polls is that if they reveal a great pattern of the populace liberalizing, they will be trumpeted by the media. A classic example was the March 2013 headline in the Richmond Times-Dispatch “Virginia Gay Marriage Poll Shows Views Shifting.” The University of Mary Washington poll referenced in the article showed only 46% supporting traditional marriage. A piece of fine journalism [insert LOL here], the article didn’t bother to compare their new found number to other polls or dare to be really scientific comparing it to a 2006 poll run by the same entity (knowing that the polls always trail the ballot) but instead this article compared the poll to the 57% vote in 2006—making the drop look as extreme as possible.
Knowing that the media claims great balance, when exit polling by multiple news outlets (CNN, AP, NBC) from the 2014 Virginia midterm elections revealed that 53% of those who voted support traditional marriage, I started looking for the headline article referencing the large shift in views from 46% to 53%.
Fifty-three percent support is similar to what the polls showed in 2006. It is therefore a very reasonable conclusion that despite every effort of Hollywood, the media and the liberal elite to tell anyone who believes a child deserves a mom and dad that they are a bigot and all alone in our society, if a vote would have been held on a Constitutional Amendment supporting traditional marriage earlier this month, it would have likely passed with the exact same 57% support. I’m still waiting for the article.