Keith Fimian

Historic Elections: But Why?

The results of yesterday's elections are historic in many obvious ways. Unlike 1994, Virginians participated in making that history by turning over three liberal incumbent members of the House of Representatives (see Washington Post), including a 28-year veteran previoulsy thought unbeatable, someone who hadn't had a competitive race in years. So we congratulate three friends of The Family Foundation who won their races yesterday and are on their way to Congress:

» Congressman-elect Morgan Griffith (Newsweek's The Gaggle blog), a 100 percent TFF voter as a member of the House of Delegates;

» Congressman-elect Robert Hurt (Danville Register & Bee), a 91 percent TFF voter as a member of the Virginia Senate; and

» Congressman-elect Scott Rigell (Norfolk Virginian-Pilot), a donor to our organization.

In the 11th district, liberal incumbent Gerry Connolly has a narrow lead over conservative challenger Keith Fimian, a vote likely to be recounted (Wall Street Journal Washington Wire blog). Pending that outcome, eight of Virginia's 11 Representatives are Republican. We were pleased to participate in the voter education and get-out-the-vote efforts in these districts. Some of you may have received our GOTV phone calls over the weekend.

In some ways, though, the elections went beyond politics. While the national and state media focus on Congressional outcomes, something happened a bit below the surface that is even more historic — and perhaps longer term.

For example, at least 19 state legislative bodies, including those in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio flipped partisan control to Republicans (John Hood at National Review's The Corner blog and Ryan Beckwith at CQ Politics' The Eye blog). In fact, the North Carolina Legislature is Republican for the first time since 1870. The Alabama legislature is Republican for the first time since 1876.

I don't tell you that to trumpet Republicans, but because our sister family policy council organizations inform us that many of those elected yesterday support pro-family policies. These organizations ran campaigns similar to our Winning Matters 2009 program and saw pro-life, pro-family candidates win across the board. More important than simply electing people of one particular party, citizens in these states elected pro-family conservatives.

Possibly more telling, voters in Iowa defeated three Supreme Court judges instrumental in imposing homosexual marriage on that state against the will of the people via judicial fiat (New York Times). It is the first time since judges have been on the ballot in Iowa (1962) that they have been defeated on Election Day. Once again, when the issue of marriage is put to the people, traditional marriage wins.

Now, the question is, will the message sent by the voters yesterday carry over into next year's crucial Virginia Senate elections? Will party leaders get the message that motivates voters and give us candidates that are unapologetically pro-life and pro-family? Will Virginia follow the lead of other states that brought wholesale change to their legislatures? Will party leaders endorse incumbents for the sake of "party unity" or listen to the voters? Time will tell if they truly got the message.

VA-8 Update: Will This Be The Out-Of-The-Blue Shocker?

Every wave election has a result that, no matter how big the tsunami, catches everyone off guard. Many are saying today will bring one of those tidal waves. Predictions range from a GOP House pickup of anywhere from 60-80 seats. If so, where will the shocker come from? In Virginia, the spotlight has been on the 2nd, 5th, 9th and 11th Congressional districts. But there is some late buzz on a possible upset in the reliably deep blue Alexandria-based 8th district. There, long-time extreme left wing Democrat Jim "We'll Take Everything You Have" Moran, who has a history of fighting with colleagues and constituents alike, taking questionable loans and bashing Israel, is facing Republican Patrick Murray, a retired Army Colonel and aide to former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.

The race, closer than most expected, was thrust into the spotlight recently when Moran blurted out another one of his infamous insults. This time the professional politician accused conservative candidates of being nothing more than "strawmen" with no real public service to their country, including his opponent (see Government Executive), in the process insulting every soldier, sailor, Marine, airman and guardsman. Outragously, the man who's drawn a lifetime of checks as an elected official, accused Murray of being on the public dole — for his military service (see Murray's response on Fox News Channel). Immediately, Murray's campaign was flooded with ex-military volunteers.

Further boosting Murray was an impressive debate performance (see YouTube) and a Murray internal poll remarkably had Moran with only a 2.5 point lead. Match that with record turnouts in the 8th and 11th districts (also boosting Keith Fimian) June primaries, where only recently Northern Virginia Republicans caucused in drugstore photo booths, and some special election wins last year, and anything can happen.

As Virginia Senator Mark Obenshain (R-26, Harrisonburg) wrote today (see complete letter):

In a wave election — and this has all the makings of one — you tend to get a stunning upset or two, with a race no one thought was close, perhaps one no one even bothered to poll. I fully expect the pundits to be scratching their heads at the results in a couple of districts — and why shouldn't they be right here in Virginia?

Why shouldn't it be, say, Chuck Smith in the third district, or Patrick Murray in the eighth?

Finally, here's some up-to-the-hour on-the-ground eyewitness testimony as recorded on Kathryn Jean Lopez at The Corner at National Review Online.

Kathryn, I voted for Patrick Murray this morning, and I’m feeling bullish about his prospects based on what I saw at the polls. The lines were longer than ‘08 (though I went a bit earlier this year, at 10:00 AM). I heard a couple going over the sample ballot and agreeing to vote “no” on all the bond issues — Arlington hasn’t been denied a bond in 31 years. I heard an elderly woman say very sharply to the Moran volunteer’s offer of literature, “No THANK you!”, and then I heard a man tell the poll worker that he hasn’t voted in forty years because he thinks they’re all bums. And last, on my way out, I heard that same Moran volunteer call after another woman, “Well at least we can agree that it’s cold out!” But the sweetest moment of all was when I sat down to write this: a good friend of mine from Alexandria called to tell me that for the first time in his life, he voted for a Republican. He hadn’t even told his wife yet .... Happy election day

The final straw? Rep. Moran's insult, saying military service wasn't public service, and calling conservative candidates strawmen, may spell his doom in a wave election. It may be what we're talking about tomorrow.

Why We Vote 2010, Part 2; Fimian Predicted To Win On One National Blog

As I wrote in the previous post, RealCatholicBlog.com shares with us the latest videos from CatholicVote.org, further establishing its reputation for powerfully produced election year videos designed to make people think and properly inform themselves with the knowledge to perform their call to citizenship, and vote for candidates willing to uphold God's ordained institutions, such as life and marriage. Although geared to Catholics, the videos, especially the one below ("We Are The Catholic Vote") appeals to the universal truth that all life is precious and must be protected, particularly the unborn. By the way, American Papist blogger extraordinaire Thomas Peters, who merged his site with CatholicVote.org, predicts Republican Keith Fimian to win Virginia's 11th Congressional district race. It'll be close as will all of Virginia's hotly contested races. Enough reasons to vote and get others to, as well. We highly recommend the video below and encourage you to distribute it to those people who otherwise may sit out tomorrow.

We are the pro-life vote.

CitizenLink Produces Ad Supporting Fimian In VA-11

CitizenLink has produced and is airing a radio ad in support of 11th district Republican Congressional candidate Keith Fimian. The 30 second ad denounces the record debt created, taxes raised and Washington's assault on our faith and values over the last two years.  The ad is in conjunction with a CitizenLink mailer (in which Family Foundation Action partnered) sent to 11th district values voters within the last few days that criticizes the Democrat incumbent Gerry Connolly (click here)

To hear the ad and to distribute it to voters in the 11th district via e-mail or social media sites, click here then scroll to the bottom of the page. 

11th District Voters, Check Your Mailbox: CitizenLink And TFF Action Sent You The Truth About Gerry Connolly's Record!

Our sister organization, Family Foundation Action, and CitizenLink, have partnered on a mailer sent to values voters in Virginia's 11th Congressional district. The campaign there is between first-term Democrat Gerry Connolly and Republican Keith Fimian. The mailer documents Mr. Connolly's voting record, which received a zero on the Family Research Council Action scorecard. Among the lowlights are a 97 percent voting record in lockstep with the Obama-Pelosi agenda, including voting for the $800 billion failed "stimulus" bill, the monstrous Obamacare government takeover of the health care industry and taxpayer funded abortions.

To view it online, to print or forward the mailer on Congressman Connolly's record to other voters in the 11th district (or if you don't live in the 11th but know people who do), click here. 

Most agree this is the most important mid-term election in decades, if ever. It will determine whether we continue on a course sharply to the left, or apply the brakes and set a steady, constitutional course. Be informed and make the best decision you can reach, then  exercise the full power of your citizenship and vote on Tuesday; and think about getting more involved by spreading the word about the 11th district campaign or any of Virginia's other 10 Congressional districts.

If you live in the 11th district, but didn't receive the mailer, sign up to get updates from  CitizenLink by clicking here. For those who visit this site but do not receive Family Foundation alerts, click here to sign up.

Poll: Mid-Term Election Predictions: How Many House Seats Will Flip In Virginia?

All signs are pointing to a large Republican victory on November 2. But how large? Will Virginia play a role? It's prediction time. Tell us how many of Virginia's six seats held by Democrats will flip to the GOP column in this mid-term election. Then, please post your comments on the campaigns and which specific candidates you think will win. Will there be a surprising upset? Will the close elections break one way or the other? Will Morgan Griffith, Keith Fimian, Robert Hurt and Scott Rigell sweep? Will Patrick Murray or Chuck Smithpull shockers? Who will win the biggest and who will squeak by? Any recounts? Give us percentages and predictions of all types. We ask. You tell us.

Update: Distribution Information For 11th Congressional District Voter Guides

Here's more information about the voter guide for the November 2 11th Congressional District election. They are non-partisan guides that give the candidates' positions on issues important to people of faith such as their positions on life and marriage. This race is between incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly and Republican challenger Keith Fimian. These guides are jointly produced by The Prince William & Manassas Family Forum, The Fairfax Family Forum and The Family Foundation Action and are legal for distribution in churches and other houses of worship. You can order a quantity of voter guides for yourself, your friends and family, and your church by contacting one of the following people:

» Denny Daugherty: dennydaugherty@erols.com (Prince William/Manassas)

» Bob Allen: 703-361-2278 (Prince William/Manassas)

» Terry Wear: tjwear@yahoo.com (Fairfax)

» The Fairfax Family Forum: fairfaxfamilyforum@gmail.com (Fairfax)

You can view (and print) the voter guide by clicking here.

Even if you don't live in the district, you can share it on your social media networks and via e-mail with people you know who live in Fairfax and Prince William Counties and Manassas.

The voter guides also will be available at the Northern Virginia IS Pro Life Rally tomorrow from 2:00-4:00 p.m. at the Government Center Ellipse in Fairfax (more information is at the Fairfax Family Forum and at the organizer's site, Pro-Life Unity). There are only two Sundays left between now and the election, so we hope voters in Northern Virginia will take advantage of these guides and distribute them as widely as possible.

TFF Action Voter Guide Available For 11th Congressional District Candidates

The Family Foundation Action, our sister organization, yesterday released a voter guide on the positions of the candidates running for the House of Representatives in the 11th Congressional district: incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly and Republican challenger Keith Fimian. The guide was compiled in conjunction with two of our Northern Virginia affiliates, the Prince William-Manassas Family Alliance and Fairfax Family Forum.

The 11th Congressional District voter guide is available for download by clicking here.

It can be printed and distributed to interested groups or individuals, forwarded to e-mail lists, or you share it on social media sites. If you want bulk copies, contact Roger Pogge at 804-343-0010 or at roger@familyfoundation.org.

Speaking of guides, Congressman Connolly scored a whopping zero on the FRC Action Scorecard for the last two years in the House of Representatives and only 9 percent on ecomonic issues from The Club For Growth.

Fimian Takes The Fight To Connolly In Last Night's Debate

In the hotly contested and close 11th district Congressional race, Republican Keith Fimian, by all accounts, took it to incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly at Tysons Corner debate last night.  Here's a Fimian quote as reporter by the Washington Examiner (click here for the entire article):

The single most important thing government can do to create jobs is reduce uncertainty. Mr. Connolly doesn't know that — he's never created a job his whole life. As a consequence, he is not in a position to fix what's broken.

The line is emerging, perhaps, as Fimian's closing argument. He is spotlighting Connolly's record as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors and now in Congress: increased property taxes, two pay raises, and a $650 million deficit. In only one term in Congress, Connolly voted for  more than $600 billion in new taxes, supported Nancy Pelosi 97 percent of the time, and helped create an unsustainable national debt by voting for the stimulus and Obamacare.

Fimian sees a "pattern," thus the name of his latest television ad:

Republican Keith Fimian setting the record straight on Gerry Connolly's "pro-business" record.

Polls Show Virginia GOP Within Distance Of Sweeping Four Targeted House Seats

In 1994, a year after George Allen led a historic landslide Republican victory in the Old Dominion, Virginia was, for the most part, left out of the national limelight in the even more historic national Republican wave that won the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate for the first time in more than 40years. Oliver North lost a hotly contested Senate race to Chuck Robb and the GOP picked up only one House seat (the 11th, Tom Davis) while Republicans were winning in all corners of America. Was reason given by pundits at the time was that Virginians had gotten the protest out of their system in 1993. This year, following last year's more-impressive-than-1993 Bob McDonnell-led-landslide, Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Pat Mullins has been fond of saying that to take back the House, the GOP needs to gain 40 seats; 10 percent of that is here in Virginia. Now, as Jim Geraghty of National Review's Campaign Spot blog writes today, polling information shows those victories may be within reach: Three Republican challengers in those four targeted districts are leading their Democrat incumbent rivals, with a fourth closing fast. Here's the breakdown:

» In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Scott Rigell leads Democrat Glenn Nye, 48.6 to 34.5 percent.

» In the 5th District, Republican Robert Hurt leads Democrat Tom Perriello, 51.1 to 34.7 percent.

» In the 11th District, Republican Keith Fimian leads Democrat Gerry Connolly, 42.2 percent to 36.7 percent.

» In the 9th District, Republican challenger Morgan Griffith is down to Democrat Rick Boucher only 42.6 to 39.7 percent. However, one poll had Boucher up by 20 points about a month back, then by only 8 points a couple of weeks ago. The recent fallout over Mr. Boucher buying a brand new Ford with campaign funds while Virginians in the Southwest part of the state are suffering particularly hard during this recession could easily factor into a quickly narrowing gap.

The rest of the respondents in each poll were undecided. Tellingly, though, the poll, conducted by ccAdvdertising, does not include independents or third parties. Although not a top tier polling outfit, the snapshot does provide a glimpse of what directions the campaigns are going and who has momentum.

Not all landslides are the same and electorates can swing back from whence they came in a very short time. But this year, Virginia Democrats have much going against them, much more so than in 1994. Many of the circumstances that drove people to the polls and to the GOP in Virginia and in blue New Jersey (and deep blue Massachusetts in January) last year are still around: Primarily, as in the case of Congressman Boucher, this:

This love is going to last, but that might not be a good thing.

And this:

He's doing fine, representing liberal special interests rather then his constituents.

One Down, 39 To Go?

Republicans need to gain 40 seats in November's midterm elections to win control of the House of Representatives. Ten percent of that goal is in Virginia, where targeted incumbent Democrats Rick Boucher (VA-9), Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Glenn Nye (VA-2) and Tom Perriello (VA-5) are being challenged by House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, Keith Fimian, Scott Rigell and Virginia Senator Robert Hurt, respectively. Connolly, Nye and Perriello all are freshmen and Perriello may be the number one GOP target in the entire country given his razor thin victory in 2008 and the 5th's generally conservative leanings (Charlottesville Daily Progress). Perhaps no House win pleased liberals more. Now, according to a poll released yesterday by SurveyUSA for Roanoke television station WDBJ, Representative Perriello may be toast (see American Prospect's Tapped Blog and the Washington Post's Virginia Politics Blog). It shows the 5th to be a blowout already: Hurt up by a 58-35 margin (see National Review Online's Campaign Spot Blog).

While many GOP House candidates are polling well, few have the numbers that elicited a "WOW" from NRO's Jim Geraghty. Of course, polls this early can mean anything and the pros will say SurveyUSA is not a top tier pollster on the lines of Mason-Dixon or Rasmussen Reports. But, SurveyUSA was the first to poll Virginia last summer (51 weeks ago, to be exact) and it had all three statewide races right from the beginning to the very end, including double digit leads when all the more "reputable" polls showed it closer. In fact, one political pro told me the SurveyUSA results were "embarrassing," but the only people embarrassed last November were the doubters and the Democrats.

The numbers are even more astounding considering a hard fought Republican primary, a Libertarian candidate and some TEA Party dissatisfaction with Senator Hurt. (SurveyUSA breaks down its research here.) It admits it has factored Republican turnout to be much greater than Democrat turnout (not surprising since when comparing the U.Va. student drop-of from 2008, where Perriello benefited from a large Barack Obama student turnout, to 2009). However, SurveyUSA says even if it factors in a 50-50 Republican-Democrat turnout, Hurt still wins by 11 points. At this point. (Which would allow the GOP to focus on the other three seats.) But, if the trend holds, it's a remarkable sign for House Republicans — and one down and 39 to go.

Also Endorsing Fimian . . .

About the same time I received the Fimian campaign's e-mail alert trumpeting Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli's endorsement, something that's taken, not unexpectedly, only minutes to create a major political buzz (Washington Post Virginia Politics Blog), I received an e-mail from former Delegate and Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Jeff Frederick. He also endorsed Fimian:

. . . join me in supporting Keith Fimian. Keith is a successful small businessman who has literally created hundreds of jobs — just the kind of leader we need today. Plus, unlike others in this race, he is the opposite of a typical Washington Republican/politician — which is exactly the kind of person we need representing us. But most importantly from our perspective, Amy and I are proud to call him a friend who has always stood by us. 

Note the phrasing "typical Washington Republican/politician." Frederick has no need for certain politicians be they Republican or whatever else.

Fimian is facing fellow Republican Pat Herrity for the Republican nomination to face first-term incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly in Virginia's 11th Congressional district. It is considered a swing district and most likely will be tracked by national pundits to detect any trends for this November's mid-term elections. A GOP pick-up here probably foretells a big national gain for the Republicans.

Fimian Receives Cuccinelli Endorsement For 11th District GOP Nomination

There was more big new in the increasingly high profile Virginia Republican 11th Congressional District nomination campaign. Overshadowed by the Tea Party dominated 5th and 2nd district races, Republicans Keith Fimian and Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity have methodically raised the decibel level over charges and counter charges of who has raised taxes and who's more electable in the general election against first-term incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly. Today, Fimian made more news: Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli endorsed him. His endorsement statement reads:

Today, I am proud to endorse Keith Fimian for Congress. Keith's experience and record of creating jobs here in Northern Virginia makes him an ideal candidate to face off against Gerry Connolly this fall.

Keith is staking out the same conservative positions now as he did in 2008, and his steadfast support of the Constitution is an asset we could use on Capitol Hill. And unlike Gerry Connolly, Keith has shown that he will not change his tune to win votes. He will stand up to the Washington insiders and fight for what is right, no matter what.

As an entrepreneur, small businessman and job creator, Keith Fimian is exactly the kind of leader we need in Congress right now to turn this economy around. He will focus on creating jobs, cutting spending and he'll work hard to get government out of the way of businesses doing business. Keith Fimian is 100% pro-life — he's someone we can trust to always vote to defend our traditional values and stand up for families.

If Republicans are going to make a meaningful comeback in 2010, we need candidates like Keith who will carry their conservative principles to Congress — not return to the business-as-usual politics that lost us the majority in the first place.

Keith Fimian has the qualities and experience we need to win in November. We need Keith Fimian in Congress, and that's why he's earned my endorsement. ...

The endorsement by Cuccinelli, the most popular statewide official among conservative and libertarian activists, and a rare pol not afraid to jump in where principle matters, should be a real asset to Fimian among primary voters. Fimian, who started and runs U.S. Inspect, the nation’s largest provider of residential and commercial property inspection services, ran a spirited campaign but lost the Northern Virginia swing district to Connolly in 2008, a poisoned year for Republicans. The seat was open due to the retirement of former moderate GOP Congressman Tom Davis. It is targeted by state and national Republicans.

Fimian Is In For Another Congressional Run!

We're not even halfway through the statewide and House of Delegate campaigns and we already have a race for Congress shaping up for next year. Republican Keith Fimian, who ran for public office for the first time and lost in a very competitive race last November to then-Fairfax County Board Chairman Gerry Connolly for Virginia's 11th district U.S. House seat, announced today he will challenge Connolly again in 2010. He writes, in a letter announcing his candidacy: 

Last year I campaigned for Congress on the platform of fiscal responsibility, opposition to corruption and the need to get our economy moving. Those issues are even more critical today.

Consider how Congress has gone out-of-control on spending:

» A staggering one year Federal budget of $3.6 trillion, nearly half of which ($1.7 trillion) will be financed by debt.

» $787 billion stimulus law that has done nothing to slow unemployment or spur economic growth.

» A cap-and-trade boondoggle that contains massive taxes that will hit Northern Virginia families.

The numbers are mind numbing. And that doesn't even include the trillion dollar health care bill being debated!

This Congress has blown through spending records without even reading the bills they are voting on! And the spending has not slowed the growth in unemployment. Rather, creating economic insecurity. Northern Virginia families are hurting and Congress has no answer but more spending.

Then he hammers Connolly. Several publications, despite the district's left-of-center leanings, consider it a swing district that the conservative Fimian can pull off, especially if the economy shows no signs of improvement. After all, in a bad year for Republicans in 2008, Fimian almost won. Thseat opened up last year when "moderate" Republican incumbent, Tom Davis, retired. You can read the rest of Fimian's announcement here.