It's Not Only About CongressJul. 29, 2010
The November mid-term elections this November is about more than who controls Congress. Although it looks increasingly like a wave of near unprecedented proportions will wipe out the Leftists in charge of the House, and possibly the Senate, (see Michael Barone's analysis in the Washington Examiner), it could be going pear shaped for the libs in more way than one. There are more than 20 state legislative chambers that may flip from Democrat to Republican control this year, reports Joseph Weber at the Washington Times. A flip of this magnitude by either party always is huge news as states are the great policy labs as well as providing a bench for future statewide and federal office. But this year, still more is at stake: redistricting. The party in charge of a state's legislature will draw the new Congressional districts based on the census figures as well as their own districts. A large legislative sweep could ensure GOP control of Congress and state houses for at least 10 years. Not only that, the GOP is poised to regain a majority of governorships according to polling data.
Here's the devastating news to left-wing hearts:
A survey by the Washington-based Governing magazine last week found that more chambers could change party hands in 2010 than in any other election cycle since at least 2002. Although more than 20 Democrat-controlled state chambers are in play, Republicans are in jeopardy of losing just four.
Other surveys show Republican gubernatorial candidates looking strong in many states, increasing the chance of a major shift in the balance of power in state-level politics heading into the 2012 presidential election.
The party in the White House usually loses seats at the state level in midterm elections.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), the White House party has been a net loser of state legislative seats in every election in the past 110 years except 1934 and 2002, the first midterm elections of Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and George W. Bush, respectively.
That dynamic, combined with voter concerns about the economy, federal spending and Democratic control of 55 percent of state seats means 2010 is "shaping up to be the worst election for Democrats since 1994," said the NCSL's Tim Storey.